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PUNCHESTOWN · 2m Listed Hcap Chs market_id 1.257492250

Off: 30 Apr 16:50 · Field size: 20 · Region: IRE

Paper bet

Runner Come Walk With Me
Placed at 30 Apr 15:16
Lay price 7.40 (betfair)
Stake £1.00
Outcome LAY LOST @ BSP —
P&L −£6.40

Scan history 2 scans

scan @ 30 Apr 15:09
SR signal YES → Come Walk With Me (SR 0.0%, LOW)
SR rationale 7 recorded losses; narrow gap to next-weakest (3 losses); only 7 prior runs
Claude pick Escapeandevade
Claude rationale Best combination of meaningful sample size (9 distance runs) and a weak SR of 11.1% — the largest confirmed losing sample in the field. Only 1 win from 9 attempts at this distance band suggests a genuine pattern of underperformance rather than small-sample noise. Slight market backing (-0.13) is minimal and not enough to override the form picture. In a 20-runner field, this is a more defensible lay than any of the tiny-sample 0% runners.
Validator NO_OPINION · score 4/10
Validator note Come Walk With Me has the largest 0% SR sample (7 runs) among a cluster of 15 horses all at 0%, but the gap to the next weakest is 0.0pp. The bot's own confidence is LOW and drift is flat at -0.04 — no market confirmation. With no separation, the pick is statistically arbitrary within the 0% cluster.
Runners
show 20 runners 
[{"selection_id": 77442028, "name": "Come Walk With Me", "cloth_number": "3", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 7, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.035970808205720885, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 67636946, "name": "Raffles Dolce Vita", "cloth_number": "6", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.4689636498944184, "drift_runs": 2}, {"selection_id": 1164748, "name": "Release The Beast", "cloth_number": "8", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.24142945668377644, "drift_runs": 4}, {"selection_id": 61039743, "name": "Ballysax Hank", "cloth_number": "1", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.11334895650106003, "drift_runs": 10}, {"selection_id": 64252373, "name": "Sky Lord", "cloth_number": "11", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.047130247903810096, "drift_runs": 4}, {"selection_id": 65310711, "name": "Coral River", "cloth_number": "4", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 4, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.1671504621865263, "drift_runs": 10}, {"selection_id": 62700119, "name": "Jalila Moriviere", "cloth_number": "15", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.05108863569489095, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 75978000, "name": "Relieved Of Duties", "cloth_number": "10", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.047949981553576465, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 51221421, "name": "Birdie Or Bust", "cloth_number": "12", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.1415732301106399, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 52028866, "name": "Western Diego", "cloth_number": "2", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.09428336382922896, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 23225584, "name": "Dont Go Yet", "cloth_number": "19", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.12126059059514858, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 25241, "name": "Indiana Jones", "cloth_number": "14", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.6068897087183459, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 43513567, "name": "The King Of Prs", "cloth_number": "9", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.12078154655771288, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 44604338, "name": "Path Doroux", "cloth_number": "7", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.25892001581310264, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 38130320, "name": "Tuckmill", "cloth_number": "20", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.24310360288717273, "drift_runs": 4}, {"selection_id": 42220221, "name": "Escapeandevade", "cloth_number": "5", "sr": 0.1111111111111111, "runs": 9, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.1257235156576023, "drift_runs": 9}, {"selection_id": 67570804, "name": "Mclaurey", "cloth_number": "16", "sr": 0.16666666666666666, "runs": 6, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.258472954456445, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 12350307, "name": "Golden Joy", "cloth_number": "13", "sr": 0.2, "runs": 5, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.2337912792673283, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 64252400, "name": "Seskin Flash", "cloth_number": "18", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 6, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.2810690408628031, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 40134301, "name": "Petit Tonnerre", "cloth_number": "17", "sr": 1.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.04670094034398545, "drift_runs": 8}]
scan @ 30 Apr 16:02
SR signal YES → Come Walk With Me (SR 0.0%, LOW)
SR rationale 7 recorded losses; narrow gap to next-weakest (3 losses); only 7 prior runs
Claude pick Indiana Jones
Claude rationale 0% SR over 2 venue_distance runs combined with the highest positive drift in the entire field (+0.61) — the market has consistently pushed this horse's price out pre-race. That drift signal is the clearest market-based confirmation of a likely loser available in this data, distinguishing it from the cluster of other 0% runners.
Validator NO_OPINION · score 4/10
Validator note 15 runners share 0.0% SR, so there is no meaningful gap to separate Come Walk With Me from the rest. Its 7-run sample is the largest among the 0% cohort which adds some weight, but the bot itself flagged LOW confidence and the drift is marginally negative (-0.04), offering no market confirmation. In a field this flat on SR, the pick is essentially arbitrary.
Runners
show 20 runners 
[{"selection_id": 77442028, "name": "Come Walk With Me", "cloth_number": "3", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 7, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.035970808205720885, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 67636946, "name": "Raffles Dolce Vita", "cloth_number": "6", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.4689636498944184, "drift_runs": 2}, {"selection_id": 1164748, "name": "Release The Beast", "cloth_number": "8", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.24142945668377644, "drift_runs": 4}, {"selection_id": 61039743, "name": "Ballysax Hank", "cloth_number": "1", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.11334895650106003, "drift_runs": 10}, {"selection_id": 64252373, "name": "Sky Lord", "cloth_number": "11", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.047130247903810096, "drift_runs": 4}, {"selection_id": 65310711, "name": "Coral River", "cloth_number": "4", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 4, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.1671504621865263, "drift_runs": 10}, {"selection_id": 62700119, "name": "Jalila Moriviere", "cloth_number": "15", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.05108863569489095, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 75978000, "name": "Relieved Of Duties", "cloth_number": "10", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.047949981553576465, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 51221421, "name": "Birdie Or Bust", "cloth_number": "12", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.1415732301106399, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 52028866, "name": "Western Diego", "cloth_number": "2", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.09428336382922896, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 25241, "name": "Indiana Jones", "cloth_number": "14", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.6068897087183459, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 43513567, "name": "The King Of Prs", "cloth_number": "9", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.12078154655771288, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 23225584, "name": "Dont Go Yet", "cloth_number": "19", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.12126059059514858, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 44604338, "name": "Path Doroux", "cloth_number": "7", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.25892001581310264, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 38130320, "name": "Tuckmill", "cloth_number": "20", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.24310360288717273, "drift_runs": 4}, {"selection_id": 42220221, "name": "Escapeandevade", "cloth_number": "5", "sr": 0.1111111111111111, "runs": 9, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.1257235156576023, "drift_runs": 9}, {"selection_id": 67570804, "name": "Mclaurey", "cloth_number": "16", "sr": 0.16666666666666666, "runs": 6, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.258472954456445, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 12350307, "name": "Golden Joy", "cloth_number": "13", "sr": 0.2, "runs": 5, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.2337912792673283, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 64252400, "name": "Seskin Flash", "cloth_number": "18", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 6, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.2810690408628031, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 40134301, "name": "Petit Tonnerre", "cloth_number": "17", "sr": 1.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.04670094034398545, "drift_runs": 8}]
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