DAILY DONKEY.
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PUNCHESTOWN · 4m1f XC Chs market_id 1.257492236

Off: 30 Apr 15:40 · Field size: 14 · Region: IRE

Paper bet

Runner Bodhisattva
Placed at 30 Apr 14:13
Lay price 50.00 (betfair)
Stake £1.00
Outcome LAY WON @ BSP —
P&L +£1.00

Scan history 2 scans

scan @ 30 Apr 14:07
SR signal YES → Bodhisattva (SR 0.0%, HIGH)
SR rationale 10 recorded losses; large gap to next-weakest (7 losses); 10 prior runs
Claude pick Cavalry Master
Claude rationale Cavalry Master shows a 0% SR over 3 venue/distance runs AND has an extraordinary average drift of +42.35 — by far the largest positive drift in the field. This means the market has consistently pushed its price out sharply pre-race, a strong signal that informed money is moving away from it. While 3 runs is a modest sample, the combination of 0% SR at this exact venue/distance and extreme market drift makes it a compelling donkey candidate, arguably stronger than Bodhisattva when market behaviour is factored in.
Validator AGREE · score 7/10
Validator note Bodhisattva has 10 runs at this distance with a 0% strike rate — that is a meaningful sample size, not a small-sample fluke. Ten consecutive failures at the distance paints a clear picture. The drift signal is essentially flat (-0.00), meaning the market isn't backing it in nor drifting it dramatically, but the consistent losing record over a decent sample is the key factor. The gap to the next runner with real history (Dorans Law at 14.3%) is significant. Worth laying.
Runners
show 14 runners 
[{"selection_id": 40954196, "name": "The Goffer", "cloth_number": "13", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.18033835170845555, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 117405, "name": "Outside The Door", "cloth_number": "1", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.012168099918297906, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 10160332, "name": "Bodhisattva", "cloth_number": "9", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 10, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.0042944321134883445, "drift_runs": 13}, {"selection_id": 20523519, "name": "Walking On Glass", "cloth_number": "14", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.1833237208727032, "drift_runs": 9}, {"selection_id": 12139566, "name": "Lough Derg Spirit", "cloth_number": "11", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.9172222192260604, "drift_runs": 1}, {"selection_id": 39511552, "name": "Benny The Duke", "cloth_number": "8", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 1.3526506998744647, "drift_runs": 1}, {"selection_id": 22778338, "name": "Cavalry Master", "cloth_number": "10", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 42.35146440764323, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 26615396, "name": "The Bosses Oscar", "cloth_number": "12", "sr": 0.0715265530080345, "runs": 0, "sr_source": "baseline", "avg_drift": null, "drift_runs": 0}, {"selection_id": 55213679, "name": "Dorans Law", "cloth_number": "5", "sr": 0.14285714285714285, "runs": 7, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.04668831103927747, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 36530826, "name": "Vanillier", "cloth_number": "2", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.022618813926290265, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 26984190, "name": "Busselton", "cloth_number": "3", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.05264601971757499, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 18350232, "name": "Vital Island", "cloth_number": "7", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.3510251987694234, "drift_runs": 4}, {"selection_id": 42506599, "name": "Desertmore House", "cloth_number": "4", "sr": 0.5, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.00036691027905262353, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 48091286, "name": "Shannon Royale", "cloth_number": "6", "sr": 0.5, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.006468592548345156, "drift_runs": 8}]
scan @ 30 Apr 15:09
SR signal YES → Bodhisattva (SR 0.0%, HIGH)
SR rationale 10 recorded losses; large gap to next-weakest (7 losses); 10 prior runs
Claude pick Bodhisattva
Claude rationale 10 runs at distance with 0% SR is the most statistically robust donkey signal in the field. The 0% rate over 10 runs is far more meaningful than the 1-3 run samples of peers. Cavalry Master's extreme drift (+42.35) is a notable secondary signal but the small sample limits confidence. Bodhisattva is the clearest pick.
Validator AGREE · score 7/10
Validator note 10 runs at distance with 0% SR is the largest and most reliable sample in the field among the 0% horses. Neutral drift confirms no late market support. Multiple others share 0% SR but with far fewer runs (1-3), making them untested rather than proven losers. Bodhisattva is the only horse with a genuinely significant sample backing the 0% rate.
Runners
show 14 runners 
[{"selection_id": 40954196, "name": "The Goffer", "cloth_number": "13", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.18033835170845555, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 117405, "name": "Outside The Door", "cloth_number": "1", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.012168099918297906, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 12139566, "name": "Lough Derg Spirit", "cloth_number": "11", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.9172222192260604, "drift_runs": 1}, {"selection_id": 10160332, "name": "Bodhisattva", "cloth_number": "9", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 10, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.0042944321134883445, "drift_runs": 13}, {"selection_id": 20523519, "name": "Walking On Glass", "cloth_number": "14", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.1833237208727032, "drift_runs": 9}, {"selection_id": 39511552, "name": "Benny The Duke", "cloth_number": "8", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 1.3526506998744647, "drift_runs": 1}, {"selection_id": 22778338, "name": "Cavalry Master", "cloth_number": "10", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 42.35146440764323, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 26615396, "name": "The Bosses Oscar", "cloth_number": "12", "sr": 0.0715265530080345, "runs": 0, "sr_source": "baseline", "avg_drift": null, "drift_runs": 0}, {"selection_id": 55213679, "name": "Dorans Law", "cloth_number": "5", "sr": 0.14285714285714285, "runs": 7, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.04668831103927747, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 26984190, "name": "Busselton", "cloth_number": "3", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.05264601971757499, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 18350232, "name": "Vital Island", "cloth_number": "7", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.3510251987694234, "drift_runs": 4}, {"selection_id": 36530826, "name": "Vanillier", "cloth_number": "2", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.022618813926290265, "drift_runs": 6}, {"selection_id": 42506599, "name": "Desertmore House", "cloth_number": "4", "sr": 0.5, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.00036691027905262353, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 48091286, "name": "Shannon Royale", "cloth_number": "6", "sr": 0.5, "runs": 2, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.006468592548345156, "drift_runs": 8}]
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