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LINGFIELD · 6f Hcap market_id 1.257491561

Off: 30 Apr 14:55 · Field size: 12 · Region: UK

Paper bet

Runner Poetic Jack
Placed at 30 Apr 14:11
Lay price 5.70 (betfair)
Stake £1.00
Outcome LAY WON @ BSP —
P&L +£1.00

Scan history 2 scans

scan @ 30 Apr 13:23
SR signal no
Claude pick Poetic Jack
Claude rationale With 9 runners showing SR=0% the field is broadly untested, but Poetic Jack stands out with 11 runs at this distance and still no wins — the largest sample size among the 0% SR horses. This is not a small-sample fluke; consistent failure over 11 distance runs is meaningful. Additionally, the horse drifts slightly (+0.06) suggesting no market confidence. Bluesy Moon (3 venue_distance runs, +0.27 drift) and Southbank (4 venue_distance runs, +0.01) are next strongest candidates, but Poetic Jack's 11-run 0% record at this distance is the most compelling donkey signal in an otherwise murky field.
Runners
show 12 runners 
[{"selection_id": 72999468, "name": "Elvetham", "cloth_number": "1", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue", "avg_drift": -0.03100553191801386, "drift_runs": 13}, {"selection_id": 49924762, "name": "Poetic Jack", "cloth_number": "10", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 11, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.059709010228885286, "drift_runs": 12}, {"selection_id": 23824676, "name": "Southbank", "cloth_number": "3", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 4, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.005705641758165119, "drift_runs": 19}, {"selection_id": 18423669, "name": "Walking On Clouds", "cloth_number": "9", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue", "avg_drift": 0.1930314060270102, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 12754, "name": "Top Star", "cloth_number": "5", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 4, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.2545232977424109, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 44304261, "name": "Haziym", "cloth_number": "6", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.12909686780697688, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 35658334, "name": "Little Miss Magic", "cloth_number": "11", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.01972113729132966, "drift_runs": 13}, {"selection_id": 94358842, "name": "Molly Marine", "cloth_number": "8", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.7449955817007685, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 68073036, "name": "Bluesy Moon", "cloth_number": "12", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.2666733332398716, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 24495904, "name": "Lethal Blast", "cloth_number": "2", "sr": 0.08352091540048771, "runs": 0, "sr_source": "baseline", "avg_drift": null, "drift_runs": 0}, {"selection_id": 71847135, "name": "Manhattan Chute", "cloth_number": "4", "sr": 0.16666666666666666, "runs": 6, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.12690958681732684, "drift_runs": 14}, {"selection_id": 25072, "name": "Horus", "cloth_number": "7", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.750901740098698, "drift_runs": 29}]
scan @ 30 Apr 14:07
SR signal YES → Poetic Jack (SR 0.0%, HIGH)
SR rationale 11 recorded losses; large gap to next-weakest (7 losses); 11 prior runs
Claude pick Poetic Jack
Claude rationale 11 runs at the distance with zero wins is the strongest donkey signal in a field full of lightly-raced 0% runners. Venue_distance samples like Bluesy Moon (3 runs) and the single-run horses are too small to read into. Poetic Jack's persistent failure over a meaningful distance sample, combined with a neutral-to-drifting market profile, makes it the clearest lay candidate.
Validator AGREE · score 7/10
Validator note 11 losses at the same distance band is the largest meaningful sample in the field and far exceeds any other 0% SR runner. While the gap in SR rate is technically 0pp (others also at 0%), the sample size advantage is decisive — most other 0% runners have 1–4 runs and are simply untested. Slight positive drift (+0.06) offers no counter-signal. The bot's rationale is sound.
Runners
show 12 runners 
[{"selection_id": 72999468, "name": "Elvetham", "cloth_number": "1", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue", "avg_drift": -0.03100553191801386, "drift_runs": 13}, {"selection_id": 49924762, "name": "Poetic Jack", "cloth_number": "10", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 11, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.059709010228885286, "drift_runs": 12}, {"selection_id": 23824676, "name": "Southbank", "cloth_number": "3", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 4, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.005705641758165119, "drift_runs": 19}, {"selection_id": 18423669, "name": "Walking On Clouds", "cloth_number": "9", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue", "avg_drift": 0.1930314060270102, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 12754, "name": "Top Star", "cloth_number": "5", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 4, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.2545232977424109, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 44304261, "name": "Haziym", "cloth_number": "6", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.12909686780697688, "drift_runs": 7}, {"selection_id": 35658334, "name": "Little Miss Magic", "cloth_number": "11", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.01972113729132966, "drift_runs": 13}, {"selection_id": 94358842, "name": "Molly Marine", "cloth_number": "8", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.7449955817007685, "drift_runs": 5}, {"selection_id": 68073036, "name": "Bluesy Moon", "cloth_number": "12", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.2666733332398716, "drift_runs": 8}, {"selection_id": 24495904, "name": "Lethal Blast", "cloth_number": "2", "sr": 0.08352091540048771, "runs": 0, "sr_source": "baseline", "avg_drift": null, "drift_runs": 0}, {"selection_id": 71847135, "name": "Manhattan Chute", "cloth_number": "4", "sr": 0.16666666666666666, "runs": 6, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.12690958681732684, "drift_runs": 14}, {"selection_id": 25072, "name": "Horus", "cloth_number": "7", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.750901740098698, "drift_runs": 29}]
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