DAILY DONKEY.
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REDCAR · 5f Hcap market_id 1.257491441

Off: 30 Apr 15:58 · Field size: 10 · Region: UK

Paper bet

Runner Soul Seeker
Placed at 30 Apr 14:15
Lay price 50.00 (betfair)
Stake £1.00
Outcome LAY WON @ BSP —
P&L +£1.00

Scan history 2 scans

scan @ 30 Apr 14:07
SR signal YES → Soul Seeker (SR 0.0%, HIGH)
SR rationale 12 recorded losses; large gap to next-weakest (9 losses); 12 prior runs; market typically drifts (+0.41)
Claude pick Soul Seeker
Claude rationale 12 consecutive losses at this distance with persistent market drift (+0.41) makes Soul Seeker the clear independent pick. All other 0% SR horses have 1–3 runs (too small to be reliable), and Doralee (33.3% SR over 3 runs) and Solar Biricz (10% over 10 runs) have demonstrated winning ability. Soul Seeker's extended losing record at this trip is the strongest donkey signal in the field.
Validator AGREE · score 8/10
Validator note Soul Seeker has 12 runs at this distance with a 0% strike rate — a meaningful sample that strongly suggests this horse does not win over 5f. The gap to the next most-sampled runner (Desert Champion at 15 runs, 6.7%) is decisive in terms of evidence quality. The market also consistently drifts this horse (+0.41), confirming the market's lack of confidence. While several horses share 0% SR, they have only 1–3 runs each (too small to be meaningful), making Soul Seeker's 12-run sample the standout donkey signal.
Runners
show 10 runners 
[{"selection_id": 72211829, "name": "Beerwah", "cloth_number": "7", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.050774600685801086, "drift_runs": 12}, {"selection_id": 54795326, "name": "Miss Rainbow", "cloth_number": "1", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.12017687753207025, "drift_runs": 14}, {"selection_id": 44148974, "name": "Zuffolo", "cloth_number": "3", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.07180993205656248, "drift_runs": 13}, {"selection_id": 69684889, "name": "Sanbona", "cloth_number": "5", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.0544579453982885, "drift_runs": 17}, {"selection_id": 39459036, "name": "Kyber Crystal", "cloth_number": "6", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.24050664418031278, "drift_runs": 11}, {"selection_id": 26451317, "name": "Soul Seeker", "cloth_number": "10", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 12, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.413437902370438, "drift_runs": 12}, {"selection_id": 46297897, "name": "Mrs Trump", "cloth_number": "2", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.03597962315355636, "drift_runs": 12}, {"selection_id": 28076, "name": "Desert Champion", "cloth_number": "4", "sr": 0.06666666666666667, "runs": 15, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.5342098285227675, "drift_runs": 15}, {"selection_id": 68330702, "name": "Solar Biricz", "cloth_number": "8", "sr": 0.1, "runs": 10, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.05429242883387938, "drift_runs": 10}, {"selection_id": 68900529, "name": "Doralee", "cloth_number": "9", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.11648666820869162, "drift_runs": 20}]
scan @ 30 Apr 15:09
SR signal YES → Soul Seeker (SR 0.0%, HIGH)
SR rationale 12 recorded losses; large gap to next-weakest (9 losses); 12 prior runs; market typically drifts (+0.41)
Claude pick Soul Seeker
Claude rationale Independently arrives at the same selection. 12 distance runs with 0 wins is the only statistically meaningful sample among the 0% SR cluster — all others (1-3 runs) are simply unproven. Persistent positive drift (+0.41) shows the market has repeatedly assessed this horse as an outsider across multiple races. Doralee (33.3% SR) and Solar Biricz (10%) both show far better form, leaving Soul Seeker as the clear weakest with genuine evidence behind it.
Validator AGREE · score 7/10
Validator note Soul Seeker has 12 runs at the same distance without a single win — the largest meaningful sample of any 0% SR runner in this field. Most other 0% runners have 1-3 runs and are simply untested. The consistent market drift (+0.41) confirms punters are repeatedly fading this horse pre-race. The bot's rationale is sound: volume of losses plus sustained drift is the strongest donkey signal available here.
Runners
show 10 runners 
[{"selection_id": 72211829, "name": "Beerwah", "cloth_number": "7", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.050774600685801086, "drift_runs": 12}, {"selection_id": 54795326, "name": "Miss Rainbow", "cloth_number": "1", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.12017687753207025, "drift_runs": 14}, {"selection_id": 69684889, "name": "Sanbona", "cloth_number": "5", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.0544579453982885, "drift_runs": 17}, {"selection_id": 44148974, "name": "Zuffolo", "cloth_number": "3", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.07180993205656248, "drift_runs": 13}, {"selection_id": 39459036, "name": "Kyber Crystal", "cloth_number": "6", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 1, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.24050664418031278, "drift_runs": 11}, {"selection_id": 26451317, "name": "Soul Seeker", "cloth_number": "10", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 12, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.413437902370438, "drift_runs": 12}, {"selection_id": 46297897, "name": "Mrs Trump", "cloth_number": "2", "sr": 0.0, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": -0.03597962315355636, "drift_runs": 12}, {"selection_id": 28076, "name": "Desert Champion", "cloth_number": "4", "sr": 0.06666666666666667, "runs": 15, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": 0.5342098285227675, "drift_runs": 15}, {"selection_id": 68330702, "name": "Solar Biricz", "cloth_number": "8", "sr": 0.1, "runs": 10, "sr_source": "distance", "avg_drift": -0.05429242883387938, "drift_runs": 10}, {"selection_id": 68900529, "name": "Doralee", "cloth_number": "9", "sr": 0.3333333333333333, "runs": 3, "sr_source": "venue_distance", "avg_drift": 0.11648666820869162, "drift_runs": 20}]
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